The Iran-Saudi deal and Pakistan

 

The question is why did Saudi Arabia and Iran, under the leadership of China, agree to this noble and commendable agreement? The answer to this is that although Arabs and Iranians had ethnic, historical, and jurisprudential conflicts, the real factor was America.
 
After Imam Khomeini's revolution, Iran was increasing its influence in the Middle East and Arab countries considered it a threat. Arab countries relied on America to counter the Iranian threat. However, Saudi Arabia became dissatisfied with the US attack on Iraq in 2003. They were unhappy with Saddam Hussein but Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries were advising the US not to attack Iraq as they understood it would harm them and benefit Iran.

Another major disappointment for Saudi Arabia was in Yemen, as it did not receive the expected amount of assistance and support from the United States. During this time, China emerged as an alternative economic and military power, and when it tried to increase its influence in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the UAE welcomed it. The US saw this as a threat and, in a way, interpreted it as an insult to Saudi Arabia. As a result, it tried to undermine Saudi Arabia's position by attempting to blacken the kingdom's name in the Jamal Khashoggi case. However, instead of being blacklisted, the Saudi leadership not only showed a cold reception to President Biden during his visit to Saudi Arabia, but also responded to his raising of the Khashoggi case by citing examples of human rights violations committed by the US in Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo Bay, and Afghanistan. After the disappointment with the US, Saudi Arabia decided to reduce its security risks.

If Arab countries changed their policy with Israel based on their own foundations without the United States, resolved their dispute with Turkey, and also made Qatar their friend again, the biggest factor was to provide investment opportunities to China and reduce dependence on the United States. On the other hand, Iran was so happy with China's arrival that it was troubled by American influence in the Arab world.

Although Iran had achieved significant success in the field of proxy warfare in Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon against Saudi Arabia, due to economic constraints, its economy was severely suppressed. In addition, it was also fearful of the increasing influence of Israel in Iraq and Azerbaijan.
While the joint actions of the United States and Israel are a fear for it, on the other hand, it felt a greater danger from better relations between Israel and Arab countries. The Iranian leadership began to understand that if there was an alliance against it between Arabs and Israel, it could be many times more dangerous for Iran in the face of the alliance of the United States and Israel or the United States and Arab countries. With the protests of women on the issue of the hijab, it began to feel internal threats as well. Therefore, when it received a green signal for better relations with Arab countries in China's triangle, Iran saw it as a windfall.

In the previous column, I elaborated on how Pakistan was being affected by the conflict between Iran and Saudi Arabia and what benefits Pakistan could gain from their peace. However, I also mentioned that along with opportunities, there could also be some challenges. One challenge would be that prior to this conflict, Saudi Arabia used to favor Pakistan more than Iran, but now it does not seem to regard Pakistan in the same way.

On the other hand, China's reliance on Pakistan and CPEC for access to the Middle East and the sea has diminished with the emergence of a new option in the form of Iran, as Iran is now free from American influence while China has reservations about its dealings with Pakistan due to concerns about another government like Imran Khan's coming to power. Such a government not only disrupts the progress of CPEC but also tips the balance towards America, providing details of China's dealings with Iran. It was said in the past that the status of Israel for the United States is the same as Pakistan's status for China, but now China will have many other options available, including Iran.
This is a difficult situation for Pakistan in the new regional or global order, as it is no longer possible to ride on the two boats (America and China) for too long. Both sides will increase pressure on Pakistan to decide whose side it is on. Despite Pakistan's economic difficulties, China's message is to ensure its unwavering friendship and reassure that Imran Khan's policies regarding CPEC and other issues will not be reconsidered. On the other hand, despite fulfilling the conditions, Pakistan is refusing to sign the agreement with the IMF and, through the efforts of neocons like Sherman and Zalmay Khalilzad, is sending a message to America in support of Imran Khan that Pakistan will not turn towards China.

Saudi Arabia, as a regional power, and other Arab countries, as centers of financial happiness and investment or oil, will accompany America and China together, and no one can pull them away from their line, but now Pakistan is facing a crossroads, and soon both sides will start making demands in clear terms, and it appears that it is not an easy decision for Pakistan to say no to any one side.

Similarly, Iran and Saudi Arabia have reduced their own risks, but challenges from India and Afghanistan are still present for Pakistan, which make it dependent on major powers. The question is whether India and Pakistan will also take sides like Iran and Saudi Arabia or adopt a balanced approach.